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Hay xem zưới đây:
Brutality won't save Ukraine's President
By Alexander
Motyl
February 21, 2014 -- Updated 0115 GMT (0915 HKT)
Protesters
gather in Independence Square in Kiev, Ukraine, on Friday, February 21.
Ukraine's President and opposition leaders agreed Friday to a deal meant to end
the country's political crisis and end the fighting that has left Independence
Square a war zone. 
A
protester aims a gun in the direction of suspected sniper fire in Kiev,
Ukraine, on Thursday, February 20. Violence intensified this past week in
Independence Square, which has been the center of anti-government protests for
the past few months. 
Police
use water cannons against protesters in Kiev on February 20. Thousands of
anti-government demonstrators have packed Independence Square since November,
when President Viktor Yanukovych reversed a decision on a trade deal with the
European Union and instead turned toward Russia. 
An
injured protester is carried away from Independence Square on a stretcher
February 20. 
A
protester gives directions before throwing Molotov cocktails on the outskirts
of Independence Square on February 20. 
Captured
police officers are led away by protesters in Kiev on February 20.
A
woman on February 20 mourns over protesters who were killed during clashes.
Protesters
rebuild barricades in Independence Square on February 20. 
Riot
police face protesters in Kiev on February 20. 
Protesters
man a barricade on the outskirts of Independence Square on February 20.
Activists
pay their respects to protesters who were killed in clashes with police in
Independence Square on February 20. 
An
injured protester is evacuated from Independence Square on February 20.
A
priest walks with a cross and shield during clashes in central Kiev on February
20. 
Medics
embrace in the lobby of the Hotel Ukraine on February 20. 
A
high-ranking police officer, left, and a representative for the protesters
speak with each other near the Cabinet of Ministers in Kiev on February 20.
Protesters
light Molotov cocktails in Kiev on February 20. 
Activists
reinforce the barricades in Kiev on February 20. 
Protesters
clash with police in Independence Square on February 20. 
Protesters
move up an embankment in Kiev on February 20. 
An
injured demonstrator is carried away from Independence Square on February 20.
A
protester shouts during clashes with police on February 20. 
Protesters
run from a burning barricade in Kiev on February 20. 
A
protester rolls a tire toward burning barricades on February 20. 
Protesters
advance to new positions in Kiev on February 20. 
Fireworks
explode over protesters near Independence Square on February 20. 
A
protester holds a crucifix as he prays in Independence Square on February 20.
Fireworks
explode over protesters in Independence Square on Wednesday, February 19.
A
protester throws a Molotov cocktail in Kiev on February 19. 
Protesters
clash with police in Independence Square on February 19. 
Protesters
use a compressed air cannon to launch a Molotov cocktail toward police lines in
Independence Square on February 19. 
A
protester hurls a Molotov cocktail toward police on February 19. 
Police
take cover behind shields as fireworks go off in Kiev on February 19.
Protesters
prepare a barricade in Independence Square on February 19. 
Police
form a barrier in Independence Square on February 19. 
Protesters
throw rocks at riot police in Independence Square on February 19.
Independence
Square smolders during protests on February 19. 
A
protester throws a cobblestone at riot police during clashes in Independence
Square on February 19. 
Riot
police officers rest against a column in Independence Square on February 19.
An
injured protester is moved out during clashes with riot police in Kiev on
February 19. 
A
protester uses a slingshot to throw a rock at riot police February 19 in Kiev.
Protesters
put on gas masks near the perimeter of Independence Square on February 19.
Protesters
protect themselves with shields as they clash with police in Kiev on February
19. 
Protesters
sleep on the floor inside a Kiev monastery on February 19. 
A
protester rushes through a broken door in the regional prosecutor's office in
Lviv, Ukraine, on February 19. Police said the unrest has spread to western
Ukraine, with protesters attacking police and local government offices in a
number of regions. 
Protesters
in Lviv burn papers from a government building on February 19. 
A
protester aims a weapon in Kiev on Tuesday, February 18. 
A
protester runs during clashes with police in Kiev on February 18.
Violence
between police and protesters escalates February 18 in Kiev. 
Protesters
burn a car in central Kiev on February 18. 
A
protester stands atop a barricade in Kiev on February 18. 
Protesters
clash with riot police outside Ukraine's parliament in Kiev on February 18.
A
rainbow forms over a protester ducking for cover in Kiev on February 18.
Riot
police protect themselves during clashes in Kiev on February 18. 
A
protester is engulfed in flames while running from the clashes in Kiev on
February 18. 
Riot
police detain a protester in Kiev on February 18. 
Protesters
invade the main office of the ruling Party of Regions in Kiev on February 18.
Riot
police shield themselves during clashes with protesters on February 18.
Protesters
throw stones toward riot police in Kiev on February 18.
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- Alexander Motyl: Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych's
brutality seems desperate
- Motyl: Violence has made protesters more resistant and
determined to fight
- Motyl: Party members are deserting Yanukovych, and
police are joining the opposition
- He says Vladimir Putin might not think it's worth his
while to prop up a doomed president
Editor's
note: Alexander J. Motyl is
professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. He served as
associate director of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University from 1992
through 1998. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the U.S.S.R., he is the
author of six academic books and several novels, including
"The Jew Who Was Ukrainian"; "My Orchidia"; and "Sweet Snow." Motyl writes a weekly blog on "Ukraine's Orange Blues" for World Affairs Journal.
"The Jew Who Was Ukrainian"; "My Orchidia"; and "Sweet Snow." Motyl writes a weekly blog on "Ukraine's Orange Blues" for World Affairs Journal.
(CNN)
-- Viktor Yanukovych is probably doomed -- even if he does not yet know it. He
should just step down.
As the embattled Ukrainian President hides in the presidential
administration in central Kiev, medical authorities report from 70 to 100
demonstrators have been killed and hundreds wounded. His minister of internal
affairs has authorized police units to employ live ammunition. There are also fears that army
units are moving on Kiev, the capital city.
These appear to be the desperate measures of a dying regime.
The turning point took place on Tuesday when Yanukovych ordered
police units to storm the Maidan -- the area centered on Independence Square
that has been occupied by the democratic opposition since late November. Regime
forces killed at least 25 demonstrators in pitched street battles, set
buildings on fire and initiated a campaign of mass terror.
Alexander Motyl
Yanukovych hoped the opposition in Kiev would disperse. Instead,
the violence only spurred demonstrators to greater resistance and underscored
their determination to fight to the end. More important, the brutality has had
several important consequences.
First, democratic forces began seizing government buildings,
attacking and disarming police units, and rejecting central authority
throughout much of the country. As of this writing, Yanukovych has effectively
lost control of at least half of Ukraine -- mostly in the west and center --
and demonstrations and disturbances are constant in many parts of the
southeast, his power base.
Second, in many of the cities and provinces captured by the
revolutionaries, riot police and militia have thrown down their weapons and
joined the resistance.
In Kiev on Thursday, several scores of internal troops and their
commander surrendered to the opposition. The coercive forces represent
Yanukovych's last line of defense; such defections mean that his regime may
soon be exposed to assault by an enraged and increasingly armed population.
Third, dozens of prominent members of Yanukovych's Party of
Regions have left the party and repudiated his rule. Some are genuinely
appalled by the brutality of the regime; all sense which way the wind is
blowing and want to save their skins -- such as up to 30 pro-regime parliamentary
deputies who reputedly fled the country for Western Europe. Even Yanukovych's
appointee, the de facto mayor of Kiev, has turned against Yanukovych. The
regime's own power base is crumbling.
Ukrainian
athlete withdraws from Olympics
Ukrainian
Protester: We stand for freedom
Expert:
No hope for Yanukovych in Ukraine
Ukraine:
A crisis with a human face
Fourth, Ukraine's oligarchs, who have so far supported or refused
to turn against Yanukovych, are now hedging their bets. Massive bloodshed and a
potential civil war is not in their interest, and the more things escalate, the
more likely will their dissatisfaction with Yanukovych turn into opposition.
Yanukovych faces a no-win situation.
If he backs down, the revolutionaries will sweep the country,
seize the presidential administration and in all likelihood arrest him. Given
the popular anger that his butchery has unleashed, it's not inconceivable that
his fate could be that of Romania's Communist dictator, Nicolae Ceausescu, in
1989.
If he doesn't back down, he can no longer hope for a return to the
stalemate that existed until February 18. The revolutionaries are no longer in
the mood for compromise with a regime that is willing to kill its own citizens
to stay in power.
Given these options, Yanukovych might decide that his only hope of
salvation lies with an escalation of violence. If the criminal bands of the
Berkut riot police -- in cahoots perhaps with select units of the internal troops
and army -- begin shooting indiscriminately and employing heavy weaponry, they
could certainly crush the Kiev demonstrators, although probably at the cost of
thousands of dead.
In light of Yanukovych's proven indifference to human life, this
option is, alas, not impossible.
But even massive bloodletting won't change the balance of forces.
Kiev's demonstrators will just go underground and initiate a guerrilla struggle
against the regime. More important, the rest of the country will remain in the
hands of the democratic opposition.
Its determination to oust Yanukovych and his criminal regime will
become implacable, while defections in the coercive forces and Party of Regions
could continue. Meanwhile, the economy is on the verge of collapse, social
unrest will likely break out in the southeastern rust belt, and the regime may
soon have no money to pay its defenders.
It could be that Yanukovych's days are numbered, and even Russian
President Vladimir Putin might not be able to help him. Putin could decide it is
not worth his while to invade Ukraine to prop up a doomed regime. And an
invasion of Ukraine could unleash a new cold war with the West and transform
Russia into a pariah state.
Yanukovych's friend, the mayor of Kharkiv, has suggested that he
evacuate to his city. That -- or flight to Russia -- may be Yanukovych's last
real hope.
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